Using the ARG Poll Tracking shown below, as well as analyzing several polling companies data for the last 8 months there are a few trends that can be seen.
Let’s start with Trump. Trump has never not lead in a New Hampshire poll since he announced, but it is clear that his loss in the Iowa Caucus, coupled with skipping the final Iowa debate, has cost Trump the momentum he was building for a blowout and has seen himself drop 6 points before Saturday night’s GOP debate. It does seem Trump still has enough support to win the primary, at least until we see Mondays final numbers, which makes the real battle for second place.
Jeb Bush simply has no chance to win in New Hampshire, and he is a 1% chance to get second place. He has had the same support in New Hampshire since the field was fully announced. His 8%-9% is likely not enough for the #2 slot. If he hits 10%, which seems likely, he will feel good enough to go to South Carolina.
Marco Rubio was an early favorite in New Hampshire, but slipped as the debates went on, but his strong finish in Iowa did give him a bounce and momentum. Probably enough to grab second, and if the establishment voters rally around him, he could sneak out a win. Then there was Saturday night’s GOP debate, and all hopes of winning were destroyed and now Rubio scrambles to stay in the fight for #2 or possibly even #3 or #4.
John Kasich has been the quiet, consistent candidate in this race. His numbers have been very up and down, but have always remained between 13% to 20%. Unlike Bush, he has seen movement, and his one time 20% shows that if people shy away from someone else, he could be their second choice. He will fight for all the top three slots.
Ted Cruz is another flat liner. In fact, he lost a little momentum with his Iowa victory, which is typical of New Hampshire…because it is typical of Iowa to pick the over-religious type candidate. He will be fighting Jeb for the 10%-11% slot, but he will accept that going down to South Carolina after New Hampshire.
That leaves us with the wild card of the group, Chris Christie. You would figure a northeast moderate governor would be right up New Hampshire’s all, but 2016 isn’t up any alley…yet. In fact, he has slipped in the polls recently, likely due to his questionable Conservative credentials. He had an impressive debate performance Saturday night, but he likely did more to hurt Rubio than help himself.
Tomorrow, after the final polls are in we will be making our predictions for the 2016 New Hampshire Primary.