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Opinion: Can Romney Win the General Election?

Some people today seem to have trouble with my formulation that the consistent anti-Romney sentiment (for such it is) of around 75 percent — reflected in the Iowa caucuses results — is somehow logically fallacious, and that one could just as easily make the same short-end equation regarding Perry, Paul, Gingrich, Bachmann, et al.

They entirely miss the point. From the start of the GOP race, the contest has been divided between Mitt Romney on one side and Everybody Else Plus Ron Paul on the other, as conservatives examined possible alternatives to the front-runner, Willard. This explains the sine-wave shape of the race so far, with various not-Romneys rising and then falling as they have been weighed in the balance and found wanting.

mitt romneyIt’s instructive to note that Romney has gained not at all from the successive collapses of the second-tier candidates, and that while it may have just been dumb luck on Santorum’s part to be the last man standing, sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Does anyone doubt that had Rick Perry not proven himself to be a tongue-tied imitation of George W. Bush that he would have put Romney away handily? It wasn’t Perry’s position on immigration that did him in, it was his sheer ineloquence.

The Mittbots might want to ask themselves this: if Romney is so great, why did Santorum — a guy who was barely a blip on the radar screen a couple of weeks ago — come out of nowhere to nearly nip him at the wire, while Mitt stayed stuck at . . . 25 percent?

As John Podhoretz put it yesterday:

The results last night make it clear that Romney is unquestionably the weakest party front-runner in contemporary political history, scoring fewer caucus votes in Iowa in 2012 than he received in 2008.

As I said on the most recent NR cruise, if Romney is the nominee, he will lose. He has no idea what Axelrod & Co. are capable of, nor of the depths to which they will stoop to destroy him. They will attack him as a flip-flopper, as a panderer, as a rapacious and heartless one percenter, and, yes, as a Mormon. They will damn him with faint praise as a liberal accomodationist, as the spiritual father of Obamacare. He’s a gentleman in a mug’s game, and this is no time for gentlemen.

Source: National Review

6 comments

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  1. Jeff Dearman

    Romney is the best moderate candidate who can defeat Obama in 2012. None of the other candidates will get enough support from independents, moderate conservative democrats, or moderate conservative republicans. The other candidates like Santorum and Ron Paul are too far to the right and don’t identify with the mainstream America. Romney also has many views with which the majority of Americans agree with on illegal immigration, the economy/jobs, foreign policy, etc. He is also Pro environment, and believes in combining a number of resources from natural gas to biofuels, to renewables. But the main thing is he will get this country back on track and get people working again, unlike Obama who has wasted trillions of dollars. We need true change and Mitt Romney is the best hope for that change to come in Nov 2012. I would suggest anyone who is undecided to look @ Mitt Romney and consider voting for him. He is the only Republican who can BEAT OBAMA.

    1. Average USA guy

      Um….ron paul won independents 8:1 in Iowa. 40% of his voters were between the ages of 18-24. He has by far the biggest support of independents in modern political history for a republican canidate, and his youth support rivals that of current president Obama.

      Wtf have you have been smoking to think that?

  2. Norcross

    The liberal media has done everything they can to ensure Romney is the Republican candidate. They would never do that if they really thought he was electable. The only reason he has even maintained his 23% support is because the media have protected him while attacking every candidate who gets ahead. I am convinced that is because they already have enough ammo to torpedo his campaign as soon as the general begins – which is easy to believe, because we already know plenty of things they could attack him with which they haven’t yet (even while making up things against his opponents to get them out of the way). As soon as Romney becomes the official candidate, the media will switch from “he’s the only electable candidate” to “he’s a big-government, job-killing, socialized-medicine hypocrite” and guarantee an Obama win.

  3. Bryan Rector

    I can say one thing I am an Independent and I am voting for Ron Paul. Romney is a flip flopper. He is good a speaking but that is about it. He voted for Obama Care and as Huntsman said at the debate your ranking in your state of all the states is about 48. Although I liked what Huntsman said I sill am Voting for Ron Paul. His economic policy’s and deep cuts and are the only way this country is going to come out of this depression/recession. Cutting future spending is not going to cut it in my economic book I read from. Remember at the end of the debates on Saturday 1.7.2012, Ron Paul said when he goes home he was going to read a good Economics Text Book.

  4. David Glenn

    I have just woke up after the November. 2012 General Election.
    Headlines are “Obama Landslide Victory ”

    President Reelected !!!!!!!

    Save this post until November 7, 2012 day after election

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